Modeling NIPF Landowner Behavior: Developing “A Willingness to Sell Timber” in the Future Model

The Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee currently is experiencing wide-spread forest parcelization and changes in species composition as a result of changes in land use and ownership. These changes can be attributed partially to industrial forest land divestiture and the lingering effects of the 1998 – 2002 Southern Pine Beetle (SPB) epidemic. A random sample of 1600 NIPF landowners owning 40 or more acres of land were surveyed to determine their willingness to sell timber in the future. Forty-five percent of all respondents indicated that they had previously sold or harvested timber, but only 30 percent indicated they intended to sell timber in the future. Logit regression and factor analysis were used to model owner willingness to sell timber in the future. Landowners most willing to consider a future timber sale on their property had sold timber in the past, tended to own their land for timber production, had received forest management advice in the past, and had a high interest in maintaining the health of their forest. Factor analysis revealed that landowners most likely to consider selling timber in the future would fit into one of three categories: 1) Improvers; 2) Investors; 3) or Legacy owners.